Based on real-world data from China's top 50 GDP cities in 2024, this study employs a multiple linear regression model to analyze the factors affecting the spatial distribution of Pop Mart stores within cities. The results indicate that commercial vitality and pedestrian flow are key determinants of store density, while factors traditionally assumed significant – such as university student population – show no statistically significant impact.

Founded in 2010, Pop Mart has built its business model around proprietary IP blind box products, encompassing design, manufacturing, omni-channel sales, and IP operation. The company owns globally recognized IPs like LABUBU, Molly, and Dimoo. Recently, Pop Mart's IP LABUBU has emerged as a global cultural phenomenon, propelled by its distinctive "ugly-cute" aesthetic and celebrity endorsements (e.g., Rihanna, Lisa), contributing to the company's record-high market valuation. This research investigates the spatial distribution characteristics of Pop Mart stores in China's core cities to identify the key drivers behind its retail network expansion.

Figure 1. Pop Mart stores and their main IP products

Research Data and Methodology

To empirically examine the factors influencing Pop Mart store density, we constructed a multiple linear regression model as shown in Equation (1):

Where the subscript i denotes the city.PMi is the explained variable in this study,representing Pop Mart store density (units/km²). shopping_i represents commercial vitality, measured by shopping center density (units/km²).popu_i denotes population structure, measured by the proportion of population aged 15-65; lntraff_i represents daily subway passenger flow (10,000 person-times/day).lnpgdp_i indicates consumption capacity, measured by per capita GDP (10,000 yuan).lnstu_i represents the number of college students (10,000 persons).lnretail_i denotes total retail sales of consumer goods (100 million yuan).ε_i represents the unexplained variation.

Note: The above data mainly come from the National Bureau of Statistics, local statistical bureaus, local education bureaus, Pop Mart financial reports, Winshang.com, JLL, local metro official websites, and Urban Rail Transit Association, with the area statistics referring to built-up urban area.

Multicollinearity Test

First, a preliminary analysis of correlations among variables was conducted to assess their interrelationships. To ensure no severe multicollinearity exists among the selected variables, variance inflation factor (VIF) tests were performed. As shown in Table 1, all VIF values are below the critical threshold of 10, indicating no significant multicollinearity issues among the variables.

Table 1. Multicollinearity Test Results

Regression Results Analysis

Table 2. Regression Analysis of Factors Influencing Pop Mart Store Density

Note：^* p < 0.1, ^** p < 0.05, ^*** p < 0.01,Robust standard errors in parentheses.

Table 2 demonstrates the relationship between Pop Mart store density and various socioeconomic factors. Through data analysis, the following conclusions are drawn. (1) The impact of shopping center density on Pop Mart store density is significantly positive at the 1% level. For every one-unit increase in commercial vitality, the number of Pop Mart stores per square kilometer increases by 0.2058.

(2) The influence of traffic flow on Pop Mart store density is significantly positive at the 1% level, indicating that cities with greater subway passenger flow tend to have correspondingly higher Pop Mart store density. (3) The number of college students, proportion of population aged 15-65, per capita GDP (in 10,000 yuan), university student population, and total retail sales of consumer goods show no significant impact on Pop Mart store density.

Analysis of Pop Mart's Store Location Strategy

The agglomeration effect of commercial activities is significant. Shopping center density has the strongest explanatory power for store distribution, indicating that Pop Mart relies on high-traffic business districts and shopping centers to showcase products, provide immersive experiences, and reach target customers. This explains why blind box stores are commonly seen in shopping malls, highlighting the central role of commercial vitality in brand store placement.

Transportation accessibility proves crucial. The significant positive correlation with subway passenger flow confirms the influence of transportation hubs on store location strategy. Convenient transportation ensures frequent and random access to potential consumers, aligning with the impulsive and immediate nature of blind box purchases.

New insights into consumer demographics. The number of university students shows no significant impact, suggesting the core customer base may not be current students. While college students may serve as brand culture ambassadors and enthusiasts, their consumption conversion rates or influence on store location decisions appear substantially weaker compared to financially independent working professionals.

Inspiration for Cities and Brands

For cities, attracting emerging consumer brands like POP MART requires maintaining and enhancing the quality and vibrancy of core commercial districts, as well as developing efficient and convenient public transportation networks to create high-traffic, high-consumption scenarios. For POP MART and similar brands, adhering to a location strategy centered on "commercial vitality + transportation hubs" remains the foundation for steady offline expansion. At the same time, it is essential to accurately understand the needs of the core customer base (young professionals) and continuously innovate in product design, marketing campaigns, and other areas to meet their demands.